Avian Flu question?!

Question:
I want to know all about the avian bird flu. In particular, I am

looking for what will happen to society, financial markets,

healthcare system etc. if a full blown outbreak occurs. What are the

best and worst case scenarios? Are we prepared for such an outbreak?

What are the current medications available?
Answers:
""Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)""
Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

""Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response (CSR): Avian Influenza""
World Health Organization (WHO)
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

""Warnings of a Flu Pandemic""
Nature
http://www.nature.com/nature/focus/avianflu/index.html

See also:

""Health > Conditions and Diseases > Infectious Diseases > Viral >
Influenza > Avian""
Google Directory
http://www.google.com/Top/Health/Conditions_and_Diseases/Infectious_Diseases/Viral/Influenza/Avian/

The impact of an avian influenza pandemic on society, financial
markets, and healthcare systems would be substantial.

""In the absence of any control measures (vaccination or drugs), it has
been estimated that in the United States a 'medium–level' pandemic
could cause 89,000 to 207,000 deaths, between 314,000 and 734,000
hospitalizations, 18 to 42 million outpatient visits, and another 20
to 47 million people being sick. Between 15% and 35% of the U.S.
Population could be affected by an influenza pandemic, and the
economic impact could range between $71.3 and $166.5 billion.""

* * *

""The numbers of health-care workers and first responders available to
work can be expected to be reduced; they will be at high risk of
illness through exposure in the community and in health-care settings,
and some may have to miss work to care for ill family members.

Resources in many locations could be limited because of how widespread
an influenza pandemic would be.""

""Information About Influenza Pandemics"" [under ""Preparing for the Next Pandemic""]
CDC
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

""Although health care has improved in the last decades,
epidemiological models from the [CDC] project that today a pandemic is
likely to result in 2 to 7.4 million deaths globally. In high income
countries alone, accounting for 15% of the worlds population, models
project a demand for 134–233 million outpatient visits and 1.5–5.2
million hospital admissions. However, the impact of the next pandemic
is likely to be the greatest in low income countries because of
different population characteristics and the already strained health
care resources.""

* * *

""Vaccines, antiviral agents and antibiotics to treat secondary
infections will be in short supply and will be unequally distributed.
It will take several months before any vaccine becomes available.

Medical facilities will be overwhelmed.

Widespread illness may result in sudden and potentially significant
shortages of personnel to provide essential community services.""

""Pandemic preparedness"" [under ""Consequences of an influenza pandemic""]
WHO
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic/en/index.html

The original CDC papers are:

""The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States:
Priorities for Intervention,"" by Martin I. Meltzer, Nancy J. Cox, and
Keiji Fukuda (1999)
CDC
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/meltzer.htm

""Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United
States: Implications for setting priorities for intervention,"" by
Martin I. Meltzer, Ph.D., Nancy J. Cox, Ph.D., Keiji Fukuda, MD (April
30, 1999)
CDC
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm

As these papers indicate, vaccination could reduce the negative
impacts, though it may not be possible on the scale needed to result
in maximum benefits.

A major problem with bird flu is that there is no vaccine yet, though
attempts to develop a vaccine are ongoing. According to WHO, current
vaccines are only indirectly effective in preventing a pandemic.
There are two classes of drugs -- ""M2 inhibitors (amantadine and
rimantadine) and the neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir and
zanimivir)"" -- that are considered effective against bird flu, though
a recent strain in Vietnam is cause for concern.

""Avian influenza frequently asked questions"" (29 January 2004) [final
three questions and answers]
WHO
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/index.html

""Avian Influenza Vaccines""
CDC
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/vaccines.htm
Answers:

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